In this edition of the CHOICE newsletter, we analyze the post-electoral situation in Poland and what it means for the country's China policy and present our latest outputs.
In October’s Polish parliamentary elections, the opposition parties secured enough seats to form a majority, leaving the Law and Justice (PiS) party, which has ruled Poland since 2015, unable to put together a government coalition. While it may not be until mid-December that the new coalition, comprising the Civic Coalition (KO), the Third Way, and the Left, takes over the government formation process, it is now clear that the new leadership in Warsaw will seek to reverse eight years of PiS’s illiberal policies.
This significant domestic political shift does not necessarily entail a shake-up of the country’s foreign policy. While there will be a notable difference in Poland’s positioning within the EU, Poland’s strong transatlantic relationship and its support for Ukraine will remain unaffected by the change in power. Similarly, Warsaw’s policy toward China is unlikely to undergo substantial changes.
As demonstrated by the recent MapInfluenCE study by Joanna Nawrotkiewicz, a shared perspective on China is prevalent across the Polish political spectrum. PiS, KO, the Third Way, and the Left share an assessment of China’s negative role in the Ukrainian conflict, but they also concur on the importance of maintaining economic relations with Beijing. Furthermore, there is a consensus among most political parties regarding Poland’s support for Taiwan in international affairs.
Read the full newsletter below.