The plurality of opinions originating in the essence of the EU and NATO existence merges in two incontestable focal points. The first one is the fact that in the long term it will be inevitable for Europe to pursue its coexistence due to Russia being the natural geographical neighbor. The second one is the wide experience of the Eastern European democracies (CEE) with the imperialist conduct of the “Russkiy Mir”. Their voice shall logically play the role of the notional moral compass within searching for the new political approach towards the Kremlin.

Authors of the scenario package offer several points of view on the potential evolution of global geopolitical factors, which have the capacity to influence Russian internal politics, whose legibility is often limited for external stakeholders. Will the death of V. Putin lead to the rise of the moderate technocratic elite or the explosion of secessionist tendencies in regions causing another surge of militant nationalism? Will the Chinese assertiveness force Washington to leave Ukraine to her fate or rather the Ukrainian victory cause the end of centralizing power by the Kremlin? Last but not least, how will Putin’s de facto control over Belarus impact the global political scene?

Until now, the direction that Russia and the rest of the world will choose has remained unclear. However, the variable that is going to determine the state of play appears to be evident – the cohesiveness of the collective West.