Poland is the Czech Republic's second most important neighbour in economic, political and security terms. The Polish parliamentary elections are of pan-European significance, as their outcome will substantially affect the future direction of European integration. From the Czech perspective, they can thus be characterised as the most important foreign elections of 2023.
The policy brief first outlines Poland’s foreign and European policy since 2015. It then presents the development of Czech-Polish relations in recent years.
In the third part, it predicts the nature of Polish European and foreign policy in each of three possible outcomes of the parliamentary elections: 1) the formation of a government or parliamentary coalition of the United Right with the Confederation, 2) a deadlock, the impossibility or unwillingness to form a majority coalition and snap elections, 3) the victory of the current opposition and the formation of a government led by the Civic Coalition.
The text identifies the main challenges that the Czech Republic should be prepared for in the event of each of these scenarios.
The publication was supported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom.